Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -120 MISS +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +18 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -0.7 (-18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -2.8 (-20.8) | 138.2 (-28.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -1.4 (-19.4) | 133.6 (-23.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.4 (-20.4) | 136.6 (-26.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -2.4 (-20.4) | 138.6 (-28.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#87) | 8.1 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#91) | 0.20 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#67) | 0.86 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#114) | 0.489 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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