Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -120 BTLR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +14 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -4.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -3.2 (-17.2) | 137.0 (-17.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -2.8 (-16.8) | 133.3 (-13.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -2.0 (-16.0) | 136.9 (-16.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -2.9 (-16.9) | 137.5 (-17.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BTLR 81 – 71 DEP |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BTLR 87 – 80 DEP |
| Feb 23, 2025 | BTLR 84 – 72 DEP |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BTLR 86 – 69 DEP |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BTLR 82 – 63 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-14 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 2-8 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#126) | 1.1 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#221) | 0.54 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#186) | 1.01 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#310) | 0.489 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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