Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PRES +1300 WIN -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -15.4 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -13.3 (+1.3) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -11.0 (-1.0) | 136.7 (+7.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -11.6 (-0.4) | 141.4 (+2.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -12.4 (+0.4) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIN 73 – 71 PRES |
| Feb 28, 2026 | WIN 74 – 70 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 20, 2025 | WIN 81 – 77 PRES |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WIN 76 – 67 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-15 | 23-2 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 17-1 |
| Home | 5-6 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#318) | 7.1 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#319) | 3.16 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.19 (#319) | 4.32 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#329) | 0.600 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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