Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -125 VCU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -0.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -2.1 (+13.9) | 135.3 (-11.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -2.5 (+13.5) | 135.0 (-11.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -2.2 (+13.8) | 137.3 (-13.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -2.3 (+13.7) | 136.3 (-12.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VCU 89 – 82 SBU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | VCU 76 – 59 SBU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | VCU 75 – 61 SBU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SBU 77 – 75 VCU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | SBU 67 – 62 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 19-7 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 8-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#68) | 10.3 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#44) | 1.74 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#52) | 2.23 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#45) | 0.571 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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