Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -750 SBU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -9.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -7.6 (+9.4) | 128.8 (+6.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -8.0 (+9.0) | 129.2 (+5.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -8.5 (+8.5) | 129.8 (+5.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -7.8 (+9.2) | 127.8 (+7.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VCU 89 – 82 SBU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | VCU 75 – 61 SBU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SBU 77 – 75 VCU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | SBU 67 – 62 VCU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SBU 89 – 78 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#36) | 4.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#53) | 0.97 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#46) | 1.25 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#45) | 0.558 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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