Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
| Money | VCU -195 SBU +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +11 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -3.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+33.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -2.0 (-13.0) | 135.5 (+31.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -3.8 (-14.8) | 134.3 (+32.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -2.2 (-13.2) | 136.3 (+30.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -3.1 (-14.1) | 137.6 (+29.4) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VCU 89 – 82 SBU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | VCU 76 – 59 SBU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | VCU 75 – 61 SBU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SBU 77 – 75 VCU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | SBU 67 – 62 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#84) | 7.1 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#139) | 0.95 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#117) | 0.86 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#151) | 0.542 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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