Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -213 VCU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -5.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.6 (-0.6) | 136.0 (-7.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -3.2 (+1.8) | 134.8 (-5.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -4.8 (+0.2) | 136.9 (-7.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -4.6 (+0.4) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | VCU 89 – 82 SBU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | VCU 76 – 59 SBU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | VCU 75 – 61 SBU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SBU 77 – 75 VCU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SBU 89 – 78 VCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#77) | 6.1 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#114) | 1.01 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#110) | 1.35 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#103) | 0.550 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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