Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ORST +450 USC -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +2 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | USC -16.7 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -12.7 (+14.7) | 146.2 (-32.2) | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -11.8 (+13.8) | 145.9 (-31.9) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -11.9 (+13.9) | 147.9 (-33.9) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -12.6 (+14.6) | 146.9 (-32.9) | 16% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2024 | USC 82 – 54 ORST |
| Dec 31, 2023 | ORST 86 – 70 USC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | ORST 61 – 58 USC |
| Dec 5, 2022 | USC 63 – 62 ORST |
| Feb 25, 2022 | USC 94 – 91 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#228) | 15.8 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#197) | 2.71 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#174) | 3.87 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#264) | 0.628 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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