Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | FLA +350 TENN -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +26 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -6.2 (+32.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -4.4 (+30.4) | 137.3 (-13.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -2.4 (+28.4) | 133.0 (-9.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -2.3 (+28.3) | 139.5 (-15.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -3.1 (+29.1) | 137.3 (-13.3) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FLA 91 – 67 TENN |
| Mar 16, 2025 | FLA 86 – 77 TENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TENN 64 – 44 FLA |
| Jan 8, 2025 | FLA 73 – 43 TENN |
| Jan 16, 2024 | TENN 85 – 66 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 10-7 |
| Home | 6-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#40) | 20.2 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#76) | 3.49 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#75) | 4.71 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#59) | 0.621 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 25.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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