Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SYR -188 MIA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +26 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -9.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -7.4 (+18.6) | 142.5 (-2.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -7.0 (+19.0) | 143.4 (-3.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -8.0 (+18.0) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -8.4 (+17.6) | 142.9 (-2.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MIA 85 – 76 SYR |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MIA 91 – 84 SYR |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SYR 72 – 69 MIA |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MIA 82 – 78 SYR |
| Mar 5, 2022 | MIA 75 – 72 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 4-15 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-7 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#50) | 3.5 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#82) | 0.83 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#87) | 1.15 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#100) | 0.520 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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