Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Under |
| Money | CIT +350 MER -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +20 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -3.1 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.6 (-34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.0 (-18.0) | 160.3 (-14.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.9 (-18.1) | 156.4 (-10.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.7 (-18.3) | 163.4 (-17.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.9 (-18.1) | 162.5 (-16.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#203) | 3.6 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#181) | 1.14 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#188) | 1.59 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#195) | 0.566 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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