Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -225 AKR +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +12 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -8.5 (-20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -9.4 (-21.4) | 150.2 (-24.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -6.7 (-18.7) | 148.0 (-22.0) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -8.8 (-20.8) | 150.8 (-24.8) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -9.2 (-21.2) | 150.2 (-24.2) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | AKR 77 – 67 BGSU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | AKR 96 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | AKR 71 – 68 BGSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AKR 83 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | AKR 74 – 70 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-12 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-7 | 9-1 |
| Away | 10-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#84) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#94) | -0.08 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#125) | -0.34 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#82) | 0.487 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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