Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -1200 CIT +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -6.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -6.3 (+7.7) | 159.2 (+0.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -6.5 (+7.5) | 158.2 (+1.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -7.4 (+6.6) | 159.0 (+1.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -6.1 (+7.9) | 156.1 (+3.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | CIT 71 – 66 UNCG |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNCG 69 – 66 CIT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 57 CIT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNCG 76 – 61 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 7-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#125) | -1.5 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#129) | 0.08 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#126) | -0.08 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#116) | 0.488 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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