Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | LAS -120 JOES +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +7 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -3.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -3.3 (+3.7) | 142.9 (+30.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAS -2.9 (+4.1) | 149.2 (+23.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -3.9 (+3.1) | 146.2 (+26.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -3.7 (+3.3) | 144.1 (+28.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 5-15 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 3-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 82.6 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#228) | -4.3 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#201) | -1.40 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#209) | -1.63 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#215) | 0.475 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 12.0% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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