Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -250 FRES +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -11.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -9.5 (+4.5) | 137.2 (+6.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -6.9 (+7.1) | 134.8 (+9.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -9.3 (+4.7) | 136.0 (+8.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -9.9 (+4.1) | 137.4 (+6.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | NEV 69 – 59 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NEV 66 – 65 FRES |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NEV 86 – 71 FRES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | NEV 94 – 69 FRES |
| Jan 12, 2025 | NEV 77 – 66 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#120) | -5.3 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#116) | -0.77 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#124) | -0.88 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#90) | 0.449 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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