Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +120 TNST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -0.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -0.9 (+2.1) | 137.7 (+7.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -1.0 (+2.0) | 139.1 (+5.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -0.4 (+2.6) | 141.9 (+3.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -0.5 (+2.5) | 138.9 (+6.1) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-22 | 4-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 3-17 |
| Home | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 0-16 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#320) | -8.5 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#323) | -2.59 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#309) | -3.36 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#267) | 0.362 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 36.9% |
Game Analysis
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