Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GW +300 DAY -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +13 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -3.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (-31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.2 (-9.8) | 145.3 (-24.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.2 (-11.8) | 141.6 (-20.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -3.5 (-9.5) | 144.2 (-23.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -2.7 (-10.3) | 146.9 (-25.9) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | DAY 68 – 66 GW |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DAY 79 – 72 GW |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GW 82 – 62 DAY |
| Jan 31, 2024 | DAY 83 – 61 GW |
| Jan 21, 2023 | GW 76 – 69 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-12 | 14-10 |
| Conference | 3-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 3-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 1-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#235) | 2.3 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#298) | 0.68 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#289) | 1.97 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#303) | 0.515 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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