Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +210 INST -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -6.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -5.7 (-0.3) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -5.1 (-0.9) | 136.0 (+6.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -6.0 (-0.0) | 138.2 (+3.8) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.5 (-0.5) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | INST 94 – 89 ILST |
| Dec 21, 2025 | ILST 85 – 65 INST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | INST 85 – 76 ILST |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ILST 85 – 81 INST |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILST 80 – 67 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-18 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-8 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#278) | 2.1 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#252) | 0.36 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#242) | 0.72 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#269) | 0.518 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 32.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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