Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–12 on winners spread MAE 11.2 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Indiana +3.3 132.4 62% 81–69 ✗
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's +6.4 129.7 72% 57–77 ✓
Bryant @ Saint Francis -10.4 163.3 17% 82–89 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart +2.1 157.7 58% 48–65 ✓
Long Island University @ Wagner +2.3 128.7 58% 77–66 ✗
Belmont @ Tennessee Tech -12.2 146.2 13% 88–67 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop +14.9 156.9 91% 61–72 ✓
Presbyterian @ Campbell +7.5 140.0 75% 46–48 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Samford +3.8 146.6 63% 87–63 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana +14.2 126.9 90% 56–67 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International +9.5 147.2 81% 81–79 ✗
San Francisco @ Portland -13.5 152.5 11% 79–63 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +10.1 146.4 82% 64–71 ✓
Tennessee State @ Jacksonville State +12.2 127.7 87% 64–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +29.7 174.6 100% 70–95 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +2.7 129.5 60% 45–57 ✓
Morehead State @ Eastern Illinois +5.0 132.6 68% 87–61 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -4.2 138.1 35% 74–54 ✓
Southern Utah @ Eastern Washington +8.3 156.8 77% 63–75 ✓
Washington @ USC +22.6 141.8 98% 68–95 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State -21.3 153.3 3% 90–57 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon State -11.0 145.5 16% 98–64 ✓
BYU @ Saint Mary's -0.1 131.4 50% 62–52 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware -5.3 135.3 32% 56–74 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Denver -17.2 155.4 6% 88–84 ✓
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +18.6 137.3 95% 75–83 ✓
Old Dominion @ Rice +2.5 146.0 59% 59–69 ✓
Bryant @ Saint Francis -10.4 163.3 17% 72–63 ✓
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's +6.4 129.7 72% 52–63 ✓
Niagara @ Manhattan -7.3 129.8 25% 49–58 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +15.4 145.6 92% 80–92 ✓
Fairfield @ Marist +9.8 125.1 81% 63–73 ✓
Marshall @ Western Kentucky -3.1 153.7 39% 73–81 ✗
UAB @ Charlotte -5.8 125.8 30% 61–37 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +6.7 133.5 73% 74–69 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop +14.9 156.9 91% 50–70 ✓
Hampton @ South Carolina Upstate +3.2 142.7 61% 84–74 ✗
North Alabama @ Kennesaw State +5.9 132.8 71% 66–43 ✗
Troy @ Georgia Southern +5.0 127.6 67% 64–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.