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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–8 on winners
spread MAE 12.0
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern
@
Ohio State
|
+6.8 | 145.7 | 73% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
Massachusetts
|
+1.5 | 166.9 | 55% | 78–80 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Wichita State
|
+2.9 | 137.8 | 60% | 53–72 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
George Mason
|
-0.7 | 130.7 | 48% | 42–75 | ✗ |
Duquesne
@
Dayton
|
+6.8 | 129.1 | 73% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Georgia
|
+4.6 | 157.0 | 66% | 95–77 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
LSU
|
+2.0 | 167.0 | 57% | 76–92 | ✓ |
Wofford
@
VMI
|
-1.0 | 143.7 | 46% | 80–78 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
Chattanooga
|
+0.0 | 151.2 | 50% | 80–83 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
Northwestern State
|
-6.7 | 156.6 | 27% | 76–66 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+0.9 | 148.5 | 53% | 69–95 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Sam Houston
|
+13.6 | 141.9 | 89% | 71–96 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Incarnate Word
|
+7.6 | 144.8 | 76% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
+0.4 | 129.3 | 51% | 63–76 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Wake Forest
|
-2.8 | 132.8 | 40% | 77–65 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Texas
|
+2.9 | 135.3 | 60% | 79–77 | ✗ |
New Mexico
@
Utah Tech
|
+7.1 | 142.5 | 74% | 72–63 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
Wyoming
|
-14.6 | 156.4 | 9% | 90–70 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Mississippi State
|
+8.3 | 135.2 | 77% | 56–55 | ✗ |
UCF
@
Temple
|
-3.9 | 134.1 | 36% | 55–62 | ✗ |
California
@
Colorado
|
+19.8 | 133.3 | 96% | 60–89 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
UNC Asheville
|
+14.4 | 135.3 | 90% | 54–92 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Utah
|
-2.0 | 134.8 | 43% | 65–79 | ✗ |
Washington State
@
UCLA
|
+9.7 | 135.1 | 81% | 61–91 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Pacific
|
+0.8 | 127.3 | 53% | 58–79 | ✓ |
Hampton
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+3.8 | 143.9 | 64% | 69–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.