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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
18–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.5
21 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin
@
Michigan
|
+3.6 | 139.5 | 63% | 54–77 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Virginia Tech
|
+9.3 | 144.6 | 80% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Butler
@
St. John's
|
+6.7 | 150.9 | 73% | 57–69 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Boston College
|
-1.4 | 144.1 | 45% | 62–84 | ✗ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Davidson
|
+13.1 | 156.4 | 88% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Florida
|
+2.5 | 136.2 | 59% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Bowling Green
|
+13.9 | 153.7 | 90% | 88–64 | ✗ |
Miami (OH)
@
Ohio
|
+9.6 | 146.8 | 81% | 61–78 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+19.4 | 147.5 | 96% | 63–96 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Oklahoma
|
+8.7 | 140.8 | 79% | 46–82 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Oklahoma State
|
-1.6 | 145.6 | 44% | 70–75 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Grambling
|
+12.4 | 150.5 | 87% | 74–79 | ✓ |
UC Riverside
@
USC
|
+13.6 | 131.1 | 89% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
North Carolina
|
+1.3 | 139.5 | 55% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Marquette
|
+3.4 | 143.5 | 62% | 69–79 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Kentucky
|
-3.1 | 145.8 | 39% | 85–65 | ✓ |
VCU
@
George Washington
|
-13.1 | 150.5 | 12% | 84–77 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Fordham
|
-18.0 | 116.0 | 5% | 68–54 | ✓ |
Furman
@
The Citadel
|
-10.5 | 173.8 | 17% | 94–88 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Virginia
|
+13.1 | 131.6 | 88% | 68–80 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Florida State
|
+0.4 | 148.3 | 51% | 73–105 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.