Hmm, you're so pretty, not to talk to you would be a crime. "Baby, Baby" - The Vibrators
← All models

Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
80–38 on winners spread MAE 8.4 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marquette @ Villanova -1.9 137.9 41% 66–81 ✗
Manhattan @ Iona +0.1 148.0 51% 60–65 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -0.7 144.8 48% 72–76 ✗
Columbia @ Brown +5.0 148.8 71% 61–86 ✓
Cornell @ Yale +12.9 158.7 88% 88–92 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +7.4 138.2 79% 71–76 ✓
Dartmouth @ Pennsylvania -3.6 145.5 36% 75–88 ✗
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy -6.2 134.7 24% 73–65 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +4.9 150.2 71% 66–80 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State +4.2 146.3 68% 80–76 ✗
Green Bay @ Robert Morris +12.3 144.6 88% 85–94 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +6.3 138.1 74% 60–94 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Mount St. Mary's +4.0 132.3 67% 58–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +5.4 136.8 72% 60–59 ✗
Fairfield @ Rider +4.5 135.7 67% 69–49 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +11.6 131.5 86% 81–89 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +3.4 149.6 67% 75–62 ✗
Kent State @ Miami (OH) +1.4 142.5 56% 92–96 ✓
Milwaukee @ Youngstown State +1.2 147.9 56% 84–74 ✗
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -0.7 130.0 45% 77–69 ✓
Oregon @ Wisconsin +9.6 153.3 81% 77–73 ✗
Florida State @ Louisville +12.8 146.6 88% 81–89 ✓
TCU @ Cincinnati +5.4 133.7 70% 63–75 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +8.0 151.0 78% 91–95 ✓
Charleston @ Drexel -0.0 140.7 47% 55–64 ✗
VMI @ Furman +10.3 140.5 87% 71–75 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Joseph's +12.3 136.5 87% 62–78 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +9.6 138.6 81% 51–73 ✓
Mississippi State @ Oklahoma -0.9 149.4 45% 87–93 ✗
Marshall @ App State +4.5 132.2 72% 69–59 ✗
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan -2.2 146.3 43% 86–57 ✓
Iowa State @ Houston +7.4 130.5 77% 59–68 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +2.8 153.3 67% 82–87 ✓
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -6.6 154.7 24% 90–67 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +8.3 154.2 80% 79–69 ✗
Tulsa @ Rice +6.9 139.8 77% 50–71 ✓
Wake Forest @ NC State -2.6 137.5 38% 73–85 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Boston College -1.9 146.7 42% 54–69 ✗
Davidson @ Fordham -0.9 147.0 43% 80–69 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +1.4 141.2 61% 69–60 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis +0.7 145.6 58% 80–85 ✓
Wagner @ Chicago State -1.0 127.6 40% 64–52 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton -1.6 132.9 43% 69–71 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Hampton -1.5 141.2 42% 70–83 ✗
Towson @ Campbell +0.8 131.7 54% 76–67 ✗
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T +2.7 139.5 61% 72–73 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.4 155.3 25% 77–79 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -3.5 139.3 35% 78–61 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +3.0 136.6 65% 73–68 ✗
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +15.4 144.4 90% 75–76 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +0.5 149.3 53% 74–77 ✓
Florida International @ Liberty +15.1 136.0 88% 45–58 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame -2.5 143.9 37% 72–76 ✗
Rhode Island @ Saint Louis +2.9 146.4 63% 66–81 ✓
Buffalo @ Ball State +10.1 149.2 84% 66–80 ✓
Evansville @ UIC +7.9 138.4 79% 77–82 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -0.1 140.7 48% 69–72 ✗
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +17.4 145.6 90% 70–95 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +14.5 151.5 89% 72–93 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +5.5 147.9 73% 70–74 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +1.6 151.8 55% 72–77 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State +2.8 128.9 58% 67–62 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +14.0 150.3 88% 70–82 ✓
Clemson @ SMU +1.8 147.8 58% 79–69 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Kansas +13.6 146.9 87% 64–96 ✓
Baylor @ Colorado -6.2 141.5 30% 74–76 ✗
Virginia @ North Carolina +10.5 142.3 85% 66–81 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +7.8 132.2 76% 54–70 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +5.4 130.0 71% 63–70 ✓
Howard @ Morgan State -1.1 160.7 46% 87–81 ✓
South Carolina State @ Delaware State -1.9 146.4 44% 94–88 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +2.5 136.5 65% 82–73 ✗
Boston University @ American University +4.6 132.5 67% 44–48 ✓
Washington @ Iowa +6.7 156.7 76% 79–85 ✓
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +4.0 140.7 66% 63–71 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Nicholls +5.2 145.3 74% 84–93 ✓
Long Island University @ Le Moyne -1.8 140.2 38% 76–61 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +11.2 132.5 84% 41–67 ✓
Portland State @ Weber State -3.0 138.1 38% 58–60 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona +2.4 142.2 62% 67–87 ✓
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +8.9 146.9 82% 73–78 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +1.3 140.4 58% 78–65 ✗
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +5.2 140.4 77% 55–61 ✓
Western Illinois @ Little Rock +10.6 135.3 86% 61–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +7.0 138.3 77% 80–73 ✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State -14.6 139.8 13% 79–63 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State +3.9 143.6 67% 59–60 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +2.2 136.0 64% 61–85 ✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana +10.4 139.4 87% 65–83 ✓
Lamar @ Houston Christian -2.7 133.1 38% 66–58 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Troy +11.6 132.9 87% 66–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois -3.4 143.9 32% 79–76 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +11.6 141.5 84% 58–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +1.8 131.6 58% 70–78 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M -5.9 145.1 25% 68–64 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ McNeese +11.4 136.7 86% 57–73 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly +0.1 159.0 47% 100–112 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Davis -3.1 141.5 36% 65–62 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego -12.5 145.5 14% 83–73 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +3.5 138.4 68% 65–73 ✓
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +3.0 136.8 68% 60–49 ✗
Southern @ Grambling -3.5 131.6 32% 71–64 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +8.9 152.5 80% 75–64 ✗
South Alabama @ Texas State -0.3 139.1 49% 92–93 ✗
Florida @ LSU -8.5 148.4 19% 79–65 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington +6.3 142.1 75% 52–74 ✓
Murray State @ Bradley +8.3 137.4 80% 83–85 ✓
Indiana State @ Belmont +6.3 164.8 77% 75–77 ✓
Boise State @ Nevada +1.0 137.8 55% 70–69 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +20.5 133.0 90% 38–79 ✓
Cornell @ Brown +1.6 149.7 57% 85–81 ✗
Harvard @ Pennsylvania +0.5 140.7 52% 79–78 ✗
Northwestern State @ New Orleans -3.9 138.0 31% 73–66 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Incarnate Word +1.0 133.7 54% 61–63 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington State -3.9 153.3 38% 109–79 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -1.1 159.6 43% 67–84 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +7.2 175.3 76% 83–96 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Miami +1.3 144.9 56% 81–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.