Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -1400 RICH +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -15.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -12.1 (+3.9) | 138.6 (+1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -12.1 (+3.9) | 139.5 (+0.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -12.3 (+3.7) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -12.1 (+3.9) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | JOES 67 – 65 RICH |
| Mar 14, 2024 | JOES 66 – 61 RICH |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RICH 73 – 66 JOES |
| Mar 2, 2023 | JOES 83 – 67 RICH |
| Dec 31, 2021 | JOES 83 – 56 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#82) | -5.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#107) | -0.76 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#99) | -0.89 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#91) | 0.483 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 20.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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