Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +130 RICH -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -1.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.6 (+15.4) | 147.0 (+3.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.3 (+15.7) | 145.0 (+5.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -1.0 (+15.0) | 146.8 (+3.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.5 (+15.5) | 147.7 (+2.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | JOES 67 – 65 RICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 62 RICH |
| Mar 14, 2024 | JOES 66 – 61 RICH |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RICH 73 – 66 JOES |
| Dec 31, 2021 | JOES 83 – 56 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#209) | 0.6 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#216) | 0.02 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#218) | 0.22 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#208) | 0.504 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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