Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -138 JOES +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -1.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -1.0 (-6.0) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -2.7 (-7.7) | 136.1 (-9.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -2.2 (-7.2) | 137.8 (-10.8) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -2.0 (-7.0) | 138.4 (-11.4) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | JOES 67 – 65 RICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 62 RICH |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RICH 73 – 66 JOES |
| Mar 2, 2023 | JOES 83 – 67 RICH |
| Dec 31, 2021 | JOES 83 – 56 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#78) | 6.0 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#50) | 1.06 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#66) | 1.21 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#55) | 0.547 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 17.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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