Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +27 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -9.9 (-36.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -8.1 (-35.1) | 143.7 (-4.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -9.9 (-36.9) | 144.1 (-5.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -8.9 (-35.9) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -8.7 (-35.7) | 143.2 (-4.2) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | JOES 67 – 65 RICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 62 RICH |
| Mar 14, 2024 | JOES 66 – 61 RICH |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RICH 73 – 66 JOES |
| Mar 2, 2023 | JOES 83 – 67 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#87) | 0.6 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#87) | -0.09 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#80) | -0.10 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#88) | 0.488 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 20.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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