Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -213 JOES +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -5.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -6.5 (+0.5) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -4.8 (+2.2) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -7.0 (-0.0) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -6.4 (+0.6) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | JOES 67 – 65 RICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 62 RICH |
| Mar 14, 2024 | JOES 66 – 61 RICH |
| Mar 2, 2023 | JOES 83 – 67 RICH |
| Dec 31, 2021 | JOES 83 – 56 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#76) | 5.4 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#50) | 0.91 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#62) | 1.02 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#58) | 0.540 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 17.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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