Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -320 TCU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -6.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -5.9 (+6.1) | 132.8 (+5.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -5.4 (+6.6) | 133.7 (+4.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -5.9 (+6.1) | 133.4 (+4.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -5.9 (+6.1) | 134.4 (+3.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TCU 73 – 63 CIN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TCU 75 – 57 CIN |
| Jan 17, 2024 | CIN 81 – 77 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#47) | 8.8 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#68) | 1.78 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#64) | 1.85 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#99) | 0.568 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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