Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | TCU -250 CIN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +18 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -4.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -4.2 (+13.8) | 146.2 (-14.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -4.7 (+13.3) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -4.7 (+13.3) | 146.7 (-14.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -4.9 (+13.1) | 147.0 (-15.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TCU 73 – 63 CIN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CIN 75 – 63 TCU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | CIN 81 – 77 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#24) | 12.5 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#36) | 1.36 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#42) | 1.88 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#75) | 0.559 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 38.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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