Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | OU +165 MSST -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +6 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -1.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (+27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -0.8 (+6.8) | 147.7 (+32.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -0.9 (+6.9) | 149.4 (+30.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -0.8 (+6.8) | 148.9 (+31.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.0 (+7.0) | 149.8 (+30.2) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | MSST 72 – 53 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#55) | 16.0 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#33) | 3.34 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#33) | 4.03 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#70) | 0.625 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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