I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Nevada Wolf Pack
69 – 70
FINAL Conference
Boise State Broncos
Mountain West Conference · Lawlor Events Center · February 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread NEV -0.5 Away covered
O/U 136.5 Over
Money NEV -110 / BOIS -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total NEV win
Actual BOIS +1 139 Lost
Massey BOIS -0.5 (-0.5) — —
Massey Totals — 138.9 (+0.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 44% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 43% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NEV -0.8 (-1.8) 137.1 (+1.9) 53% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NEV -0.9 (-1.9) 133.8 (+5.2) 55% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML NEV -1.0 (-2.0) 137.8 (+1.2) 55% ✗
Baseline ML NEV -1.0 (-2.0) 139.1 (-0.1) 58% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 4, 2026 BOIS 91 – 87 NEV
Dec 21, 2025 NEV 81 – 66 BOIS
Jan 30, 2025 BOIS 66 – 56 NEV
Mar 6, 2024 NEV 76 – 66 BOIS
Jan 13, 2024 BOIS 64 – 56 NEV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NEV BOIS
Overall 17-16 26-11
Conference 8-12 14-6
Home 11-6 13-3
Away 3-8 6-5
Neutral 3-2 7-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 75.1
Avg Pts Against 68.1 67.0
Massey 8.2 (#73) 11.9 (#49)
Bradley-Terry 0.94 (#94) 1.74 (#58)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.42 (#83) 2.34 (#53)
RPI 0.532 (#115) 0.570 (#55)
Shooting & Four Factors NEV BOIS
FG% 48.3% 46.5%
3PT% 36.9% 32.2%
REB / G 32.5 36.0
OREB / G 9.2 10.3
AST / TO 1.45 1.28
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.2% 53.1%
TOV% 16.7% 17.1%
ORB% 29.7% 32.7%
FT Rate 26.0% 30.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 49.2%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 16.4%
DRB% 73.4% 77.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.7% 21.3%

Game Analysis

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