I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–18 on winners spread MAE 8.6 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Southern Illinois +5.3 143.6 71% 83–79 ✗
Columbia @ Yale +16.3 158.3 90% 64–90 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +10.7 144.5 87% 71–60 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion -0.2 149.4 49% 76–70 ✓
William & Mary @ Elon +4.6 146.8 69% 79–70 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State -7.5 139.1 22% 58–56 ✓
Portland @ Pacific +3.3 147.4 65% 81–73 ✗
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian +6.6 141.6 75% 72–80 ✓
Duke @ Illinois -7.3 153.0 29% 110–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Missouri State -1.7 138.9 39% 70–68 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +6.1 138.9 74% 71–79 ✓
Dartmouth @ Princeton +3.9 142.2 69% 76–61 ✗
Sacramento State @ Idaho State +10.0 137.0 84% 66–83 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Colorado +9.7 154.6 84% 74–92 ✓
Butler @ DePaul -1.8 145.3 45% 84–72 ✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +3.3 143.5 64% 62–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +6.4 136.1 75% 57–67 ✓
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +7.8 147.3 80% 64–66 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Oral Roberts -8.1 156.8 20% 66–71 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +2.4 144.0 63% 63–64 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +4.9 168.1 71% 85–93 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +6.3 142.9 70% 74–67 ✗
Missouri @ Arkansas +1.0 146.3 53% 85–92 ✓
Texas @ South Carolina -2.9 142.4 35% 69–84 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -5.6 137.3 25% 68–82 ✗
Montana @ Montana State +0.7 144.5 51% 89–85 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +6.3 143.1 75% 82–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.9 138.2 22% 73–64 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV -0.0 137.9 53% 61–53 ✓
California @ Stanford +5.5 147.5 71% 61–66 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +16.4 139.0 89% 44–83 ✓
BYU @ Arizona +7.1 152.5 76% 96–95 ✗
UConn @ St. John's +7.1 140.3 77% 75–89 ✓
North Texas @ South Florida -6.2 131.6 23% 64–57 ✓
Army @ Bucknell +5.8 148.2 72% 53–84 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -1.4 141.3 43% 65–84 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +7.0 146.8 79% 67–71 ✓
Merrimack @ Iona -0.4 130.6 46% 77–70 ✓
Purdue @ Indiana -1.3 145.1 42% 58–73 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Memphis +11.5 159.6 85% 65–84 ✓
Tulane @ Wichita State +4.1 142.7 72% 67–78 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +5.0 147.5 71% 89–96 ✓
Temple @ UAB +6.1 159.8 74% 64–80 ✓
Holy Cross @ Navy +2.7 135.5 63% 77–83 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall -11.2 136.6 16% 73–66 ✓
Milwaukee @ Robert Morris +2.1 147.9 62% 59–72 ✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State +11.8 149.2 88% 77–81 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +11.2 143.0 87% 65–70 ✓
Canisius @ Siena +12.7 143.9 88% 93–88 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan +0.5 153.3 51% 74–71 ✗
Rider @ Mount St. Mary's +6.8 136.7 76% 72–79 ✓
Niagara @ Marist +7.9 132.4 78% 61–64 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Saint Peter's +0.5 137.4 56% 79–85 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland +1.0 136.3 54% 86–91 ✓
Ohio State @ UCLA +4.2 138.2 71% 61–69 ✓
Utah @ UCF +1.8 154.5 56% 72–76 ✓
Arizona State @ Kansas State +3.3 144.4 66% 66–54 ✗
Drake @ Northern Iowa +1.4 132.3 53% 64–58 ✗
Georgetown @ Creighton +9.0 141.3 82% 69–80 ✓
USC @ Rutgers +1.8 152.1 61% 85–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.