Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -170 UTAH +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -0.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -1.8 (+2.2) | 154.9 (-6.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -1.8 (+2.2) | 154.5 (-6.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.5 (+3.5) | 155.2 (-7.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -0.7 (+3.3) | 156.0 (-8.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UCF 73 – 71 UTAH |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UCF 87 – 72 UTAH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#84) | 9.2 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#76) | 1.44 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#78) | 1.72 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#99) | 0.525 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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