Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UTAH -102 UCF -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTAH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +2 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -3.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.6 (+0.6) | 149.1 (-5.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -2.6 (+0.6) | 150.7 (-6.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -2.2 (+0.2) | 149.8 (-5.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -2.9 (+0.9) | 152.7 (-8.7) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2025 | UCF 87 – 72 UTAH |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UCF 76 – 72 UTAH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTAH | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-9 | 14-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#107) | 10.6 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#105) | 2.68 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#104) | 3.28 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#191) | 0.605 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTAH | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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