Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO +110 AKR -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -2.1 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -1.1 (+18.1) | 159.6 (-8.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -2.1 (+19.1) | 160.2 (-9.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -1.6 (+18.6) | 161.9 (-10.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -1.3 (+18.3) | 161.2 (-10.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AKR 86 – 65 OHIO |
| Jan 17, 2025 | AKR 92 – 80 OHIO |
| Mar 15, 2024 | AKR 65 – 62 OHIO |
| Feb 28, 2024 | OHIO 74 – 67 AKR |
| Jan 24, 2024 | AKR 67 – 58 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-1 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#170) | 4.7 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#181) | 1.20 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#196) | 1.31 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#165) | 0.586 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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