Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | NICH -250 RGV +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +9 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | NICH -5.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -6.1 (+2.9) | 149.6 (+27.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -5.2 (+3.8) | 145.3 (+31.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -5.2 (+3.8) | 145.1 (+31.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -5.3 (+3.7) | 146.9 (+30.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | RGV 86 – 68 NICH |
| Feb 10, 2026 | RGV 92 – 72 NICH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NICH 71 – 69 RGV |
| Jan 28, 2025 | NICH 82 – 75 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#181) | -3.6 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#185) | -0.93 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#192) | -1.11 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#160) | 0.460 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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