Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -162 NICH +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -7.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -3.1 (-5.1) | 141.8 (-1.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -4.5 (-6.5) | 142.5 (-2.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -4.0 (-6.0) | 142.4 (-2.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -3.6 (-5.6) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | RGV 86 – 68 NICH |
| Feb 10, 2026 | RGV 92 – 72 NICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NICH 93 – 84 RGV |
| Jan 28, 2025 | NICH 82 – 75 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 12-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#170) | -2.9 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#238) | -0.93 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#228) | -1.20 (#247) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#222) | 0.462 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 29.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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