Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NICH +130 RGV -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +20 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -3.4 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -0.8 (-19.2) | 142.8 (+21.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -2.4 (-17.6) | 141.0 (+23.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -3.1 (-16.9) | 142.4 (+21.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -2.6 (-17.4) | 142.1 (+21.9) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | RGV 86 – 68 NICH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NICH 71 – 69 RGV |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NICH 93 – 84 RGV |
| Jan 28, 2025 | NICH 82 – 75 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NICH | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 14-8 |
| Home | 6-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#243) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#234) | -0.24 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#245) | -0.01 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#221) | 0.501 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NICH | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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