I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–35 on winners spread MAE 7.9 122 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Manhattan @ Siena +0.1 134.7 49% 70–68 ✗
Rider @ Niagara +1.1 145.6 59% 71–61 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Iona +2.9 145.8 65% 82–64 ✗
Fairfield @ Marist +0.5 131.8 54% 55–58 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Canisius +1.7 141.7 59% 56–61 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville -0.0 132.6 48% 59–57 ✓
Dartmouth @ Yale +16.2 136.4 90% 56–80 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia State +4.5 144.3 68% 79–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +1.8 148.8 60% 75–92 ✓
Harvard @ Brown +0.8 138.7 56% 68–71 ✓
Stetson @ North Florida +0.1 149.5 50% 59–78 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Queens University +1.3 165.4 56% 82–91 ✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina -13.9 151.5 14% 86–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas -3.7 150.0 33% 82–78 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania -3.8 151.4 32% 87–81 ✓
Columbia @ Princeton +13.0 142.1 88% 70–84 ✓
UL Monroe @ South Alabama +5.4 143.2 73% 69–80 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Lipscomb +5.0 157.5 73% 67–81 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +8.2 140.3 80% 87–90 ✓
Troy @ Texas State -2.0 140.8 43% 79–82 ✗
Southern Miss @ Louisiana +6.7 141.9 76% 61–77 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -1.0 135.4 43% 72–77 ✗
Fresno State @ Nevada +15.4 140.2 89% 66–74 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +16.3 139.8 90% 60–72 ✓
Florida @ South Carolina +1.6 148.1 60% 76–82 ✓
Florida State @ Georgia Tech -1.2 145.2 45% 76–85 ✗
Tulane @ Florida Atlantic +12.8 162.8 88% 73–79 ✓
Villanova @ Providence +1.1 133.9 55% 71–60 ✗
Butler @ DePaul -13.4 149.3 14% 82–63 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -3.0 136.4 34% 63–60 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +9.0 131.3 81% 84–94 ✓
Fordham @ Saint Joseph's +8.9 145.5 81% 69–82 ✓
Kansas @ Baylor +6.2 148.7 73% 74–82 ✓
Illinois @ Wisconsin +1.1 156.4 53% 91–83 ✗
Tulsa @ Temple +3.3 144.0 66% 72–67 ✗
Monmouth @ Elon -2.2 145.8 41% 85–70 ✓
Stonehill @ Central Connecticut +12.0 136.7 88% 67–79 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -3.7 135.7 35% 52–37 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -11.8 147.7 14% 74–62 ✓
Arkansas @ Kentucky +12.8 166.2 88% 102–111 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona +14.8 158.3 87% 83–103 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas +11.1 145.0 85% 65–81 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford -0.4 148.3 48% 71–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +4.3 151.2 69% 65–64 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +5.4 137.4 72% 65–72 ✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington +5.2 132.8 72% 64–75 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston +4.3 146.3 69% 76–87 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +4.3 139.2 66% 73–85 ✓
Navy @ American University +5.7 130.4 72% 71–65 ✗
George Washington @ La Salle +3.2 155.5 67% 66–72 ✓
Duquesne @ George Mason +3.8 133.4 67% 59–51 ✗
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart -1.9 136.6 41% 85–89 ✗
Western Michigan @ Ball State +4.1 138.8 67% 78–76 ✗
Toledo @ Buffalo -10.8 151.2 16% 85–79 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +8.4 148.3 81% 82–75 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +1.4 146.8 59% 82–63 ✗
New Hampshire @ Binghamton +0.9 145.4 54% 74–87 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota +6.4 149.0 74% 66–95 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota State -1.9 147.3 42% 78–61 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton +3.9 152.7 67% 75–89 ✓
Massachusetts @ Davidson +1.0 137.8 53% 69–67 ✗
UTSA @ SMU +16.6 155.8 89% 77–73 ✗
The Citadel @ Samford +13.0 151.8 87% 80–92 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +7.1 138.4 76% 62–74 ✓
Penn State @ Minnesota +5.4 150.3 72% 70–75 ✓
LSU @ Vanderbilt -4.3 145.0 30% 75–61 ✓
Central Michigan @ Kent State +6.8 137.0 78% 73–79 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State +16.3 138.1 91% 49–67 ✓
Iowa State @ UCF -3.8 136.6 31% 60–52 ✓
NC State @ North Carolina +12.4 152.9 88% 70–79 ✓
Mississippi State @ Auburn +9.4 149.1 82% 63–78 ✓
South Florida @ Charlotte +0.4 133.6 52% 76–61 ✗
USC @ Washington +6.6 157.5 76% 82–75 ✗
Howard @ Maryland Eastern Shore -4.6 142.1 30% 70–66 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +14.6 144.2 88% 62–70 ✓
Northeastern @ Drexel +8.4 137.5 81% 59–73 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell +7.8 143.4 76% 62–64 ✓
Delaware @ Stony Brook +2.0 144.2 58% 56–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island +2.8 156.3 64% 94–91 ✗
Norfolk State @ Delaware State -0.3 140.0 48% 71–85 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Coppin State -8.4 133.2 20% 83–58 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis -2.7 136.1 36% 74–58 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Tennessee State -1.1 139.7 47% 65–66 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock +12.1 141.8 86% 43–81 ✓
NJIT @ Bryant +11.4 143.1 87% 82–101 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany +2.1 144.9 60% 74–71 ✗
Lamar @ Northwestern State -3.1 144.0 35% 82–77 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley +1.3 138.8 55% 78–65 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +11.1 144.2 86% 58–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +6.4 140.0 75% 67–61 ✗
South Carolina State @ Morgan State -1.3 146.7 42% 72–61 ✓
High Point @ Longwood -2.1 152.6 40% 72–74 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +3.3 137.2 65% 57–54 ✗
Tennessee State @ UT Martin +7.3 151.8 78% 87–96 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Western Illinois +3.0 134.0 66% 65–76 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +8.3 136.6 79% 68–80 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Houston Christian -2.1 148.4 38% 98–85 ✓
Alabama State @ Alabama A&M -0.6 136.4 46% 53–58 ✗
Florida A&M @ Grambling +6.3 131.4 75% 68–75 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland +0.4 124.3 48% 68–69 ✓
Nicholls @ McNeese +16.4 145.9 89% 62–83 ✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State +6.4 130.7 75% 66–64 ✗
Portland State @ Sacramento State -3.2 131.9 35% 61–73 ✗
Montana @ Idaho -4.3 140.3 29% 80–57 ✓
Montana State @ Eastern Washington +8.5 148.3 83% 104–108 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +1.0 148.3 56% 76–87 ✓
Iowa @ Northwestern +4.4 152.0 70% 87–80 ✗
Virginia @ Duke +11.8 131.6 85% 48–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +16.1 145.7 90% 66–75 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Boston College -0.3 144.9 52% 90–65 ✓
Texas Tech @ West Virginia -4.8 147.6 30% 81–70 ✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia +1.7 144.3 59% 70–56 ✗
VCU @ Richmond +4.5 135.5 70% 76–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +12.3 140.2 88% 73–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Milwaukee +1.5 143.5 56% 69–90 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Oakland +17.9 146.4 91% 70–75 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +2.4 138.3 65% 70–80 ✓
New Orleans @ Incarnate Word +4.3 154.4 66% 87–80 ✗
Dartmouth @ Brown +9.9 133.3 83% 67–89 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -4.1 154.1 30% 83–85 ✗
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M -0.8 141.3 43% 73–65 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +11.7 140.6 87% 69–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.