I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Sun Belt Conference · GSU Convocation Center · March 2, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GAST -2.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money GAST -163 / MRSH +125
Model Predictions
Spread Total GAST win
Actual GAST +3 161 Won
Massey GAST -5.7 (-2.7)
Massey Totals 149.1 (+11.9)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 69%
Efficiency Plus ML GAST -2.3 (+0.7) 146.9 (+14.1) 58%
Baseline Tuned ML GAST -4.5 (-1.5) 144.3 (+16.7) 68%
Baseline ML GAST -4.3 (-1.3) 144.1 (+16.9) 70%
Baseline Plus ML GAST -4.6 (-1.6) 147.6 (+13.4) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 10, 2026 GAST 8173 MRSH
Dec 31, 2025 MRSH 8480 GAST
Mar 7, 2025 MRSH 7976 GAST
Jan 31, 2025 GAST 8581 MRSH
Jan 24, 2025 MRSH 9279 GAST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GAST MRSH
Overall 14-17 13-20
Conference 8-10 7-11
Home 9-5 8-7
Away 5-11 3-9
Neutral 0-1 2-4
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.4 72.9
Avg Pts Against 76.4 76.9
Massey -2.3 (#204) -4.6 (#255)
Bradley-Terry -0.66 (#245) -0.82 (#261)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.74 (#239) -0.87 (#251)
RPI 0.476 (#229) 0.469 (#247)
Shooting & Four Factors GAST MRSH
FG% 42.3% 40.2%
3PT% 31.3% 30.1%
REB / G 36.5 39.3
OREB / G 10.3 12.1
AST / TO 1.15 1.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.9% 46.4%
TOV% 13.5% 16.6%
ORB% 27.1% 29.7%
FT Rate 22.1% 21.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 51.1%
Opp TOV% 14.3% 16.3%
DRB% 69.8% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 26.7% 21.4%

Game Analysis

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