Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | SIE +140 MAN -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MAN -0.7 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIE -0.3 (-2.3) | 136.1 (+1.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIE -0.1 (-2.1) | 134.7 (+3.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.0 (-2.0) | 134.8 (+3.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.7 (-1.3) | 135.1 (+2.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | SIE 74 – 59 MAN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MAN 78 – 66 SIE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SIE 103 – 95 MAN |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIE 68 – 63 MAN |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MAN 67 – 66 SIE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIE | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 4-16 |
| Home | 2-12 | 3-10 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.4 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -16.8 (#358) | -12.7 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#347) | -2.35 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#349) | -3.33 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#337) | 0.423 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIE | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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