Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BC +100 PITT -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +25 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -1.1 (-23.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -0.3 (-24.7) | 144.9 (+10.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -1.6 (-23.4) | 142.9 (+12.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -0.9 (-24.1) | 145.3 (+9.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -0.2 (-24.8) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BC 65 – 62 PITT |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PITT 93 – 67 BC |
| Feb 15, 2023 | PITT 77 – 58 BC |
| Mar 8, 2022 | BC 66 – 46 PITT |
| Jan 30, 2022 | BC 69 – 56 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#90) | 10.9 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#97) | 1.56 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#95) | 1.89 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#110) | 0.541 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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