Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–14 on winners spread MAE 12.2 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Memphis @ East Carolina -4.5 143.2 31% 82–58 ✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb +1.7 145.3 58% 69–72 ✓
William & Mary @ Elon +3.3 140.7 64% 71–76 ✓
Towson @ North Carolina A&T -10.8 130.4 15% 84–58 ✓
Stony Brook @ Drexel +6.7 140.2 77% 86–90 ✓
Northeastern @ Delaware +5.5 138.5 72% 67–73 ✓
Monmouth @ Hampton -7.6 146.8 23% 56–64 ✗
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +3.8 145.2 68% 69–58 ✗
Campbell @ Charleston +13.7 150.9 88% 73–96 ✓
Merrimack @ Fairleigh Dickinson -4.4 145.2 30% 74–55 ✓
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut +10.8 140.5 86% 64–78 ✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne +1.4 129.3 55% 56–70 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Stonehill -4.4 140.3 29% 79–51 ✓
UMBC @ NJIT -0.6 148.3 44% 79–60 ✓
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +1.0 155.8 55% 67–91 ✓
UTEP @ Jacksonville State +3.8 133.7 68% 72–65 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State +15.6 140.6 90% 50–72 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -0.5 147.9 50% 72–62 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -2.2 152.5 39% 68–88 ✗
Omaha @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +6.0 141.4 73% 61–88 ✓
Stanford @ Utah +8.5 154.9 79% 68–90 ✓
Michigan @ Rutgers +5.2 137.0 71% 52–82 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin +10.2 148.2 85% 69–80 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana +8.2 141.7 78% 67–63 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois +4.4 131.2 66% 66–70 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah +1.8 148.7 59% 77–68 ✗
Santa Clara @ Portland -10.3 149.6 17% 75–80 ✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock +5.7 143.7 72% 60–85 ✓
Kansas City @ Denver +2.2 155.1 62% 84–69 ✗
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech -4.6 142.7 28% 85–74 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Grand Canyon +17.8 150.9 91% 43–72 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis +0.4 139.7 52% 63–75 ✓
New Mexico State @ Liberty +11.6 137.7 87% 58–83 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +5.4 150.6 74% 81–85 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +5.9 138.0 74% 92–88 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho +0.7 139.6 51% 62–48 ✗
Montana @ Eastern Washington +2.4 153.1 66% 79–89 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +4.0 145.7 67% 62–96 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ California Baptist +1.0 136.8 54% 62–60 ✗
UT Arlington @ Seattle U +5.8 145.9 74% 82–62 ✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge -4.6 147.4 32% 89–64 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +6.7 142.3 76% 76–71 ✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield -5.3 140.7 31% 57–70 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara +11.3 138.6 87% 75–83 ✓
USC @ Washington State +10.0 142.4 84% 72–75 ✓
UCLA @ Washington +5.9 139.0 72% 77–94 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -13.4 137.9 14% 83–57 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -0.9 151.3 47% 86–68 ✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio +6.2 146.6 75% 59–66 ✓
Arkansas State @ App State +10.3 148.7 83% 57–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.