Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SF +155 GONZ -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +18 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -2.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -1.0 (-17.0) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -0.9 (-17.1) | 151.3 (+2.7) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -0.1 (-18.1) | 151.0 (+3.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -0.3 (-18.3) | 151.5 (+2.5) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#59) | 14.7 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#65) | 2.03 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#68) | 2.70 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#84) | 0.588 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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