I'm just like a turtle crawling out of my shell. "Boombastic" - Shaggy
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–16 on winners spread MAE 9.2 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Auburn @ Tennessee +4.4 149.3 68% 84–92 ✓
Providence @ Marquette +10.3 147.4 82% 69–91 ✓
Louisville @ Duke +18.9 153.3 91% 59–84 ✓
North Texas @ Tulane -0.1 142.3 49% 80–76 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +1.0 144.0 57% 72–74 ✓
Winthrop @ High Point +6.7 154.6 76% 96–100 ✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern -3.1 139.2 39% 57–58 ✗
Northwestern @ Maryland +2.4 133.4 60% 68–61 ✗
Stetson @ Jacksonville -2.0 138.6 42% 86–73 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +18.2 149.5 90% 58–91 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -12.1 134.6 14% 77–58 ✓
Lafayette @ Navy +0.3 130.9 51% 58–62 ✓
La Salle @ Duquesne +8.6 141.5 82% 63–75 ✓
Bucknell @ Loyola Maryland -2.4 130.2 38% 68–46 ✓
Mercer @ Chattanooga +7.6 145.2 80% 75–84 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina +4.3 144.0 70% 77–85 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel +1.3 136.4 57% 81–63 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +16.6 146.5 90% 58–100 ✓
Samford @ Wofford -6.2 157.8 24% 69–91 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris -2.5 143.4 39% 70–60 ✓
Milwaukee @ IU Indianapolis -11.7 149.1 14% 75–70 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +4.6 139.8 70% 69–61 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Wright State +3.2 166.9 66% 79–77 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia State -8.1 147.1 21% 84–78 ✓
Marshall @ Georgia Southern +0.1 148.2 51% 73–87 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida +2.5 142.1 62% 79–60 ✗
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina -7.0 154.7 23% 71–60 ✓
Oklahoma @ Iowa State +8.7 139.1 79% 45–58 ✓
California @ Colorado +10.6 153.7 85% 78–88 ✓
UCF @ Oklahoma State +0.4 141.4 51% 77–71 ✗
Tulsa @ UTSA -0.9 153.3 48% 73–89 ✗
Wichita State @ UAB +6.0 145.6 77% 74–66 ✗
Temple @ Rice +2.9 146.2 66% 65–43 ✗
Drake @ UIC -7.7 147.1 23% 107–105 ✓
Belmont @ Murray State +1.2 150.0 58% 83–61 ✗
Missouri State @ Illinois State +2.2 134.9 65% 74–75 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -9.7 154.0 17% 85–67 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +6.0 136.7 72% 67–86 ✓
Richmond @ Saint Louis -6.6 149.2 24% 80–64 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +10.6 148.3 87% 74–90 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +2.1 144.5 62% 70–73 ✓
Troy @ Louisiana +2.7 146.4 66% 87–73 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay +2.5 148.0 63% 79–83 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky -0.8 141.4 46% 90–84 ✓
South Carolina @ Texas A&M +2.2 135.8 60% 70–68 ✗
St. John's @ Butler +2.4 149.1 60% 82–59 ✗
Seton Hall @ Creighton +10.9 146.3 83% 64–85 ✓
Minnesota @ Illinois +11.4 157.8 86% 97–105 ✓
Alabama @ Ole Miss -5.7 163.9 30% 103–88 ✓
Virginia @ Boston College +1.0 133.2 54% 72–68 ✗
Arizona @ Arizona State -12.5 160.0 17% 85–67 ✓
Oregon State @ Oregon +10.5 137.7 86% 71–78 ✓
Maine @ Binghamton +0.3 131.3 49% 74–76 ✓
Nebraska @ Ohio State +0.6 141.7 51% 69–78 ✓
Bryant @ UMass Lowell +5.1 151.4 73% 67–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.