Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -150 UCF +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -1.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -0.3 (-6.3) | 144.5 (+3.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -0.2 (-6.2) | 143.0 (+5.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -0.4 (-6.4) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -0.3 (-6.3) | 143.1 (+4.9) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OKST 111 – 104 UCF |
| Jan 7, 2026 | OKST 87 – 76 UCF |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UCF 83 – 70 OKST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OKST 104 – 95 UCF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | UCF 77 – 62 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-8 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#98) | 9.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#132) | 0.94 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#121) | 1.36 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#185) | 0.533 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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