Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 175.5 Under |
| Money | OKST -130 UCF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | OKST -0.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -0.4 (+10.6) | 159.9 (+3.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -0.4 (+10.6) | 162.0 (+1.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -0.4 (+10.6) | 160.3 (+2.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -0.3 (+10.7) | 160.0 (+3.0) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OKST 111 – 104 UCF |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UCF 83 – 70 OKST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OKST 104 – 95 UCF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | UCF 77 – 62 OKST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UCF 77 – 71 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-6 | 14-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#64) | 12.5 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#33) | 3.81 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#38) | 5.29 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#57) | 0.637 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 40.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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