Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -189 OKST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -5.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.3 (+10.7) | 138.3 (+0.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -4.1 (+10.9) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -4.9 (+10.1) | 136.4 (+2.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -4.7 (+10.3) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OKST 111 – 104 UCF |
| Jan 7, 2026 | OKST 87 – 76 UCF |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UCF 83 – 70 OKST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OKST 104 – 95 UCF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UCF 77 – 71 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-8 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#51) | 4.8 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#86) | 0.27 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#83) | 0.59 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#112) | 0.482 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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