Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -425 OKST +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +7 | 215 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -6.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.7 (+43.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -6.9 (-13.9) | 161.2 (+53.8) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -6.9 (-13.9) | 160.8 (+54.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -6.6 (-13.6) | 162.3 (+52.7) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -7.1 (-14.1) | 163.8 (+51.2) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | OKST 87 – 76 UCF |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UCF 83 – 70 OKST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OKST 104 – 95 UCF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | UCF 77 – 62 OKST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UCF 77 – 71 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-5 | 15-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#50) | 8.2 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#27) | 1.84 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#28) | 2.37 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#28) | 0.547 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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