Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -135 UCF +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +9 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -0.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -0.8 (+8.2) | 158.7 (+40.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -0.4 (+8.6) | 157.1 (+41.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -1.1 (+7.9) | 155.7 (+43.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -1.2 (+7.8) | 155.5 (+43.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OKST 111 – 104 UCF |
| Jan 7, 2026 | OKST 87 – 76 UCF |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UCF 83 – 70 OKST |
| Mar 12, 2024 | UCF 77 – 62 OKST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UCF 77 – 71 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#109) | 7.0 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#98) | 1.42 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#92) | 1.63 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#184) | 0.552 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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